FOMC Press Conference 2026-07-29 · 2026-07-29 · speaker: WARSH · as of 2026-07-16
"Live implied" and "Edge vs. market" are out of scope for this build: M2 renders from sheet.json only, and sheet.json never stores a Kalshi price (see CLAUDE.md). The rightmost numeric column below is |our estimate − base rate|, i.e. how far our judgment departs from the raw historical fraction -- not a market edge.
| Market | Term | Speaker | Base rate | Our est. | |est−base| | Receipts | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| — | prejudge | WARSH | 1/1n=1 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 1 receipt(s)
Brand-new coined term in the debut (5 mentions); Powell essentially never used it. A single presser is a fact, not a pattern -- could be a recurring rhetorical tic or a one-off. No predecessor rate to compare against, so this is judgment, not a boom-word calculation.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | labor market | WARSH | 1/1n=1 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 52 receipt(s)
Powell said this at 51/51 pressers (a lock in the old regime). Warsh mentioned it exactly once in his debut -- a hit, but one presser is not a career habit. Don't extrapolate Powell's near-certainty onto a chair who has only shown up once; market may still be pricing the old habit.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | AI | WARSH | 1/1n=1 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 9 receipt(s)
Zero mentions before January 2024, climbing corpus-wide since; Warsh picked it up immediately (5 mentions in his debut). Themes belong to the moment more than to any one chair.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | task | WARSH | 1/1n=1 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 12 receipt(s)
Warsh's clearest signature word so far (five task forces announced, 25 mentions in the debut) against a Powell career average measured in fractions of a mention per presser -- this is the corpus's one real boom word by volume (see the Boom Words section of the sheet).
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | inflation | WARSH | 1/1n=1 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 51 receipt(s)
Powell-era near-lock (50/51 career; the one miss was the March 2020 emergency call). Warsh did say it in his debut, but at a lower per-1,000-word rate than Powell's career average -- haircut applied for the regime change, not a change of mind on the lock itself.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | price stability | WARSH | 1/1n=1 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 52 receipt(s)
Warsh led with this 13 times in his debut vs. Powell's career average of roughly 6 -- mandate language is his signature opening move. Likely underpriced if the market is still anchored to Powell-era rates.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | tariff | WARSH | 0/1n=1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 13 receipt(s)
Powell ran a 14-straight-meeting streak (peak 35 mentions, March 2025). Warsh said it zero times in June and no reporter asked. The streak looks dead; market may still be pricing Powell's habit.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | cut | WARSH | 0/1n=1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 41 receipt(s)
Rate-path vocabulary blackout in the debut (0 mentions) despite a substantial Powell-era base rate. Fade this hard if the market is still pricing Powell's habit rather than Warsh's actual debut.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
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| — | hike | WARSH | 0/1n=1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 34 receipt(s)
Same blackout as "cut" -- 0 mentions in the debut. Treat any Powell-era base rate on this term as stale until proven otherwise.
-- n=1, one presser is a fact, not a base rate. |
None yet.