The Sheet

OVERRIDE 0.96 (raw 11/11): Jeffreys shrinkage (hits+0.5)/(n+1) -- never publish 1.00; one novel call kills a perfect Brier. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

OVERRIDE 0.04 (raw 0/11): Jeffreys shrinkage. NEW-VOCABULARY strike -- a word can only start being said once it exists, so the historical zero is structurally an underestimate; owner judgment may raise this. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

OVERRIDE 0.04 (raw 0/11): Jeffreys shrinkage. Raise by hand if there is live Miami-specific news (robotaxi launch city etc.) -- base rates cannot see news. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

OVERRIDE 0.04 (raw 0/11 at 3+ mentions): Jeffreys shrinkage. Grok is new vocabulary post-xAI ties -- historical zero underestimates; owner judgment may raise this. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Grok (3+ times)" -- min_count=3 means this strike only resolves Yes if Grok is mentioned at least three times on the call (see match.py's "STRIKE FEATURES" section).

OVERRIDE 0.04 (raw 0/11): Jeffreys shrinkage. New-vocabulary strike (new product) -- historical zero underestimates. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Six-Seater / Six-Seat" -- both are hyphenated compounds, which tokenize into two words each ("six"/"seater", "six"/"seat") the same way the transcript itself would; see freq._single_term_count's docstring for why this matters (a hyphenated term is tokenized with the SAME rule as hyphenated transcript text, not treated as one fused word).

OVERRIDE 0.04 (raw 0/11): Jeffreys shrinkage. New-vocabulary strike + the numbers-as-words matching gap noted above -- double reason not to trust the zero. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Two-token phrase ending in a numeral ("3") -- kalshi mode still requires "Megapack" and "3" to appear as a consecutive, unmodified pair; see match.py's manual-adjudication note #2 and this file's header "Nuance flags" section for why a spoken "megapack three" vs. written "Megapack 3" vs. "Megapack III" are NOT guaranteed to normalize the same way here (numbers-as-words is a known gap, not implemented).

OVERRIDE 0.04 (raw 0/11): Jeffreys shrinkage. Pure news strike -- raise by hand on live geopolitical headlines; the corpus cannot see them. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Iran / Middle East" -- a single-word variant ("Iran") paired with a two-word phrase variant ("Middle East"); the phrase's own last-word plural/possessive flexibility ("Middle East's") still applies independently within that variant.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Short common word -- kalshi mode's word-boundary matching (not the old root/prefix mode) is what keeps this from over-matching unrelated words like "semiconductor" (closed compound, doesn't start a new token) -- see match.py.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "SpaceX / xAI" -- either name mentioned counts toward this one strike's total (variants, see match.py).

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Two-word phrase -- both words must appear as a consecutive run; only the final word ("Monitor") gets kalshi-mode plural/ possessive flexibility (e.g. "safety monitors" would still count).

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation" -- any one of the three counts toward this one strike's total (variants, see match.py). Note these are NOT plural/possessive forms of each other (that's what kalshi_word_forms already handles for free) -- they are three genuinely different words Kalshi has chosen to list together.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Europe / European" -- note "European" is a derivational adjective of "Europe", NOT a plural/possessive, so kalshi_word_forms("Europe") alone would correctly exclude it; it only counts here because Kalshi explicitly listed it as a variant.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Adjective-only word -- see match.py's "manual adjudication" note #4 (adjectives have no true plural; kalshi_word_forms will still mechanically generate "affordables" as an allowed form, which is unlikely to ever appear in practice but is worth knowing about).

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Supercharger / Super Charger" -- the closed compound "Supercharger" and the open compound "Super Charger" are listed as explicit variants (this is Kalshi choosing to treat them as equivalent by strike design, not a plural/possessive relationship match.py's engine would infer on its own).

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.

Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Merge / Merger" -- "Merger" is a distinct word (not a plural/possessive of "Merge"), so it only counts here because Kalshi listed it explicitly as a variant. "Merging"/"merged" are grammatical derivations of "Merge", NOT plural/possessive forms and NOT a listed variant -- they do NOT count. See this file's header "Nuance flags" section.