TSLA Q2 2026 Earnings Call · 2026-07-22 · speaker: · as of 2026-07-16
"Live implied" and "Edge vs. market" are out of scope for this build: M2 renders from sheet.json only, and sheet.json never stores a Kalshi price (see CLAUDE.md). The rightmost numeric column below is |our estimate − base rate|, i.e. how far our judgment departs from the raw historical fraction -- not a market edge.
| Market | Term | Speaker | Base rate | Our est. | |est−base| | Receipts | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| — | Robotaxi | — | 7/11n=11 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 7 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Semi | — | 7/11n=11 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 7 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Short common word -- kalshi mode's word-boundary matching (not the old root/prefix mode) is what keeps this from over-matching unrelated words like "semiconductor" (closed compound, doesn't start a new token) -- see match.py.
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| — | Terafab | — | 0/11n=11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | SpaceX (any of: xAI) | — | 7/11n=11 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 7 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "SpaceX / xAI" -- either name mentioned counts toward this one strike's total (variants, see match.py).
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| — | Safety Monitor | — | 1/11n=11 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Two-word phrase -- both words must appear as a consecutive run; only the final word ("Monitor") gets kalshi-mode plural/ possessive flexibility (e.g. "safety monitors" would still count).
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| — | China | — | 11/11n=11 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 11 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Regulator (any of: Regulatory, Regulation) | — | 9/11n=11 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 9 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation" -- any one of the three counts toward this one strike's total (variants, see match.py). Note these are NOT plural/possessive forms of each other (that's what kalshi_word_forms already handles for free) -- they are three genuinely different words Kalshi has chosen to list together.
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| — | Miami | — | 0/11n=11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Tariff | — | 8/11n=11 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 8 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Europe (any of: European) | — | 7/11n=11 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 7 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Europe / European" -- note "European" is a derivational adjective of "Europe", NOT a plural/possessive, so kalshi_word_forms("Europe") alone would correctly exclude it; it only counts here because Kalshi explicitly listed it as a variant.
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| — | Affordable | — | 9/11n=11 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 9 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Adjective-only word -- see match.py's "manual adjudication" note #4 (adjectives have no true plural; kalshi_word_forms will still mechanically generate "affordables" as an allowed form, which is unlikely to ever appear in practice but is worth knowing about).
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| — | Grok (3+ times) | — | 0/11n=11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Grok (3+ times)" -- min_count=3 means this strike only resolves Yes if Grok is mentioned at least three times on the call (see match.py's "STRIKE FEATURES" section).
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| — | Competition | — | 8/11n=11 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 8 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Roadster | — | 6/11n=11 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 6 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Six-Seater (any of: Six-Seat) | — | 0/11n=11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Six-Seater / Six-Seat" -- both are hyphenated compounds, which tokenize into two words each ("six"/"seater", "six"/"seat") the same way the transcript itself would; see freq._single_term_count's docstring for why this matters (a hyphenated term is tokenized with the SAME rule as hyphenated transcript text, not treated as one fused word).
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| — | Powerwall | — | 5/11n=11 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 5 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Cybertruck | — | 6/11n=11 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 6 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Megapack 3 | — | 0/11n=11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Two-token phrase ending in a numeral ("3") -- kalshi mode still requires "Megapack" and "3" to appear as a consecutive, unmodified pair; see match.py's manual-adjudication note #2 and this file's header "Nuance flags" section for why a spoken "megapack three" vs. written "Megapack 3" vs. "Megapack III" are NOT guaranteed to normalize the same way here (numbers-as-words is a known gap, not implemented).
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| — | Supercharger (any of: Super Charger) | — | 3/11n=11 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 3 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Supercharger / Super Charger" -- the closed compound "Supercharger" and the open compound "Super Charger" are listed as explicit variants (this is Kalshi choosing to treat them as equivalent by strike design, not a plural/possessive relationship match.py's engine would infer on its own).
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| — | Gigafactory | — | 4/11n=11 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 4 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Merge (any of: Merger) | — | 1/11n=11 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Merge / Merger" -- "Merger" is a distinct word (not a plural/possessive of "Merge"), so it only counts here because Kalshi listed it explicitly as a variant. "Merging"/"merged" are grammatical derivations of "Merge", NOT plural/possessive forms and NOT a listed variant -- they do NOT count. See this file's header "Nuance flags" section.
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| — | Iran (any of: Middle East) | — | 0/11n=11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Iran / Middle East" -- a single-word variant ("Iran") paired with a two-word phrase variant ("Middle East"); the phrase's own last-word plural/possessive flexibility ("Middle East's") still applies independently within that variant.
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