INTC Q2 2026 Earnings Call · 2026-07-23 · speaker: whole call (transcripts unattributed) · as of 2026-07-18
"Live implied" and "Edge vs. market" are out of scope for this build: M2 renders from sheet.json only, and sheet.json never stores a Kalshi price (see CLAUDE.md). The rightmost numeric column below is |our estimate − base rate|, i.e. how far our judgment departs from the raw historical fraction -- not a market edge.
| Market | Term | Speaker | Base rate | Our est. | |est−base| | Receipts | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Siemens | whole call | 0/4n=4 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. OVERRIDE 0.10 (raw 0/4): Jeffreys shrinkage. News strike -- the market prices forward-looking info the corpus cannot see; raise by hand if there is live Intel-Siemens news. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Dividend | whole call | 0/4n=4 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0 receiptsNo corpus mentions found. OVERRIDE 0.10 (raw 0/4): Jeffreys shrinkage. News strike (dividend was suspended; any reinstatement chatter is invisible to base rates); raise by hand on live news. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. This was the last visible row in the captured strike list, which was cut off here -- check the live market page for additional strikes below it. kalshi mode counts "dividends" too.
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| — | Mobileye | whole call | 4/4n=4 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 4 receipt(s)
OVERRIDE 0.90 (raw 4/4): Jeffreys shrinkage (hits+0.5)/(n+1) -- never publish 1.00 on n=4. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Whisper-orthography risk: check "Mobile Eye" variant counts in the self-transcribed corpus (see header nuance flags).
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| — | Panther Lake (any of: 18A) | whole call | 4/4n=4 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 4 receipt(s)
OVERRIDE 0.90 (raw 4/4): Jeffreys shrinkage -- never publish 1.00 on n=4. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Panther Lake / 18A" -- either counts toward this one strike's total. "18A" has a Whisper-orthography risk ("18-A"/ "18 A" would not match) -- see header nuance flags.
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| — | Foundry | whole call | 4/4n=4 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 4 receipt(s)
OVERRIDE 0.90 (raw 4/4): Jeffreys shrinkage -- never publish 1.00 on n=4. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. kalshi mode counts "foundries" (plural form) too.
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| — | Nvidia | whole call | 4/4n=4 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 4 receipt(s)
OVERRIDE 0.90 (raw 4/4): Jeffreys shrinkage -- never publish 1.00 on n=4. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Security | whole call | 4/4n=4 | 0.90 | 0.10 | 4 receipt(s)
OVERRIDE 0.90 (raw 4/4): Jeffreys shrinkage -- never publish 1.00 on n=4. Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Government | whole call | 3/4n=4 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 3 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Likely high-frequency given the US government equity stake discussion -- but let the corpus speak, don't presume.
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| — | Ultra 3 (any of: Ultra Series 3) | whole call | 3/4n=4 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 3 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Strike is "Ultra 3 / Ultra Series 3" -- either counts. Numbers-as-words gap: a spoken/transcribed "Ultra three" will NOT be counted by this engine -- check near-misses by hand (see header).
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| — | Arizona | whole call | 3/4n=4 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 3 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Apple | whole call | 1/4n=4 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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| — | Desktop | whole call | 3/4n=4 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 3 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. kalshi mode counts "desktops" too; "desktop" inside a hyphenated compound (e.g. "desktop-class") still starts its own token and counts.
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| — | Tariff | whole call | 2/4n=4 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. kalshi mode counts "tariffs" too.
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| — | Client Computing | whole call | 1/4n=4 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging. Two-word phrase -- both words must appear as a consecutive run; likely said via the segment name "Client Computing Group / CCG". Note "CCG" alone does NOT match this phrase -- if the market's rules count the acronym, add it as an explicit variant after reading rules_primary.
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| — | Trump | whole call | 1/4n=4 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1 receipt(s)
Verify exact strike wording & event window on the market page before logging.
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